# Risk Register

This register consolidates the structural risks facing the Systemic Dignity Infrastructure into a standard engineering risk table. Each risk is assessed for likelihood, impact, and mitigation strategy.

These are risks to a hypothetical future deployment of the architecture, not risks to this repository, which has no staff. The "Owner" column names the role that would be responsible if a pilot were ever built (e.g. "Executive Operations" describes a function, not a person or team that currently exists); where the author is the only person currently able to act on a risk, the column says so directly.

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| ID | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | Validation | Owner |
|:---|:-----|:-----------|:-------|:-----------|:-----------|:------|
| RK-01 | Federal Medicaid waiver (§1115) not renewed | Medium | Critical | Develop contingency fiscal model; diversify revenue streams (philanthropic, state general fund) | Monitor CMS renewal timeline; engage waiver advocacy coalition | Executive Operations |
| RK-02 | Incumbent service providers block deployment via procurement gatekeeping | High | High | Route funding through private capital and managed care billing rather than county procurement contracts | Track procurement interference; document Olson-predicted opposition patterns | Executive Operations |
| RK-03 | NIMBY opposition delays or blocks site acquisition | High | Medium | Rely on AB 2011 by-right authorization to eliminate discretionary review; ground floor commons design to convert facility into neighborhood asset | Monitor community opposition; track AB 2011 legal challenges | Executive Operations |
| RK-04 | Civil liberties legal challenge to compelled care pathway | Medium | High | Four-condition conjunctive threshold; LPS Conservatorship (WIC §5350) pathway with existing constitutional standing; Anti-Detention Covenant | Track ACLU/Disability Rights California litigation; maintain independent neuropsychiatric evaluation protocol | the author |
| RK-05 | Pod Steward recruitment failure (insufficient qualified candidates) | Medium | Critical | Competitive compensation; partnership with community college and social work programs; internal training pipeline | Recruitment pipeline metrics; retention rate tracking | Executive Operations |
| RK-06 | Cooperative micro-economy fails to bridge Return Deficit | Medium | High | Conservative wage ratio targets; phased market exposure; Tenancy Bridge Guarantee provides buffer | Quarterly cooperative payroll vs. market wage analysis | the author |
| RK-07 | Adaptive reuse costs exceed new construction baseline | Low | High | Rigid site feasibility assessment; standardized conversion specification; master lease negotiation | Per-unit cost tracking; abort threshold defined pre-conversion | Executive Operations |
| RK-08 | Singular Prototype fails verification thresholds | Medium | Critical | Failure against the Seven Binary Verification Metrics triggers a mechanical refusal to deploy (hard stop); network expansion is halted to prevent scaling a broken model | Independent third-party evaluation at 90, 180, 365 days | the author |
| RK-09 | Political capture degrades architecture integrity | High | Critical | Audit-independence and disclosure requirements in GOVERNANCE.md; automated disqualification via PILOT-SPECIFICATIONS.md | Governance log audit; decision trail review | the author |
| RK-10 | Resident participation in cooperative governance insufficient | Medium | Medium | Progressive onboarding; peer mentorship; governance training integrated into RDI curriculum | Monthly participation rate tracking; threshold at 70% | the author |
| RK-11 | AB 2011 / AB 2243 by-right authorization overturned | Low | Critical | Maintain compliance with all four qualifying conditions; engage legislative monitoring coalition | Track California Supreme Court rulings; maintain fallback permitting strategy | Executive Operations |
| RK-12 | Dunbar-scale cohort sizing empirically invalidated | Low | Medium | Prototype measurement at defined windows; cohort size is a tunable parameter, not a fixed constant | 90, 180, 365-day relational stability data | the author |
| RK-13 | Coercive billing telemetry violates HIPAA or triggers mass resident evictions for non-consent | Low | Critical | Zero-Knowledge Billing Firewall cryptographically separates identity from occupancy; Philanthropic Set-Aside offsets revenue loss without eviction | Opt-out rate tracking; legal audit of firewall cryptography | the author |
| RK-14 | Singular Prototype CapEx/OpEx fails to achieve the 42–52% ($24k–$29k) fully loaded arbitrage bound against the municipal baseline | Medium | Critical | Strict adherence to the $36.9M, three-pod architectural scale; refusal to negotiate scale downwards or assume municipal debt | 365-day financial audit | Executive Operations |
| RK-15 | AB 2011/2243 by-right pathway does not extend to full high-rise office-tower adaptive reuse | Medium | Critical | AB 2011 (Gov. Code §§65912.100–140) contains two structurally distinct site-eligibility pathways: Article 2 (§65912.110 et seq., general commercial sites zoned office/retail/parking) and Article 3 (§65912.120 et seq., narrower corridor-frontage-specific pathway). Which pathway, if either, a full high-rise office-tower conversion qualifies under has not been determined. SB 6 (Middle Class Housing Act of 2022) is a separate, structurally distinct by-right mechanism that has not been evaluated as an alternative pathway and should not be assumed foreclosed. | Outside counsel opinion letter determining (1) whether the target building qualifies under AB 2011 Article 2, Article 3, neither, or both, and (2) whether SB 6 offers an untested alternative by-right pathway for this building typology. | Executive Operations |