05 · Reference models

Assumptions, constraints, risks, and scale.

Reference models make the boundary conditions visible. They are not decorative appendices; they identify what must be true, what cannot be violated, and what can break.

ASSUMPTIONS

What must be validated

Surplus commercial capacity, continued Medicaid/CalAIM pathways, recruitable Pod Stewards, workable Dunbar effects, occupancy, and a bridgeable Return Deficit.

Assumptions register ↗
CONSTRAINTS

What the design must respect

AB 2011 and SB 6 pathway uncertainty, ADA, Fair Housing, fire and seismic code, LPS rules, CEQA, zoning, managed-care enrollment, and waiver renewal timing.

Constraints register ↗
RISKS

What could stop deployment

Waiver nonrenewal, procurement gatekeeping, NIMBY opposition, civil-liberties challenges, staffing failure, cooperative wage failure, political capture, and prototype threshold failure.

Risk register ↗

Capital and scaling model

Physical scale drives the economics.

Capital anchor

The repository's capital model centers the three-pod Singular Prototype at $36.9M. Its fully loaded resident-cost test is not the earlier operating-only figure; it includes amortized capital debt and targets a 42–52% bound against a published $50,000 municipal baseline, pending independent review.

Capital model ↗

Scaling model

A single pod is 116 residents and 34 staff within an 85,000-square-foot plant. Three pods yield 348 residents, 76 staff, and 185,000 gross square feet. Larger towers require independent vertical pipelines and physical segregation.

Scaling model ↗

How to use this page: Treat the reference registers as a feasibility-audit map. Before a pilot is authorized, each assumption should have a validation method, each constraint a mitigation, and each structural risk an owner and monitoring plan.

Open all reference models ↗