When it comes to investments and risk management, human existence is shaped by a variety of low-probability, high-impact (LPHI) events and high-probability, slow-moving (HPSM) crises.

Balancing these two forms of risk is essential in planning for the future, whether on an individual, societal, or global scale. Below are several aspects of human existence where these odds come into play:

1. Health and Medicine

• LPHI: Pandemics, like COVID-19, have a low probability of occurring in any given year, but when they do, they can cause widespread devastation. Similarly, rare but deadly diseases like Ebola or new mutations of viruses could be considered LPHI risks.

• HPSM: Chronic diseases like diabetes, heart disease, and obesity-related illnesses represent high-probability risks that gradually degrade individual and public health. They are slow-moving crises that accumulate over time and have long-term social and economic impacts.

2. Environmental Stability

• LPHI: Major natural disasters such as supervolcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, and asteroid impacts are rare but catastrophic when they occur. While infrequent, the scale of their impact on human life and ecosystems can be immense.

• HPSM: Climate change is a classic example of a slow-moving, high-probability crisis. Rising sea levels, increasing temperatures, and extreme weather patterns steadily degrade the environment over decades or centuries, profoundly affecting agriculture, biodiversity, and human settlements.

3. Economics and Financial Systems

• LPHI: Market crashes, financial crises, and hyperinflation events tend to occur with low probability, but when they do, the fallout can be enormous, destabilizing economies and leading to prolonged recessions or depressions.

• HPSM: The gradual erosion of purchasing power through inflation, stagnation in wages relative to the cost of living, or the steady accumulation of national debt are slower-moving, more predictable economic risks. They affect quality of life but don't necessarily result in sudden economic collapse.

4. Technological Advancements

• LPHI: Sudden breakthroughs, such as the advent of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, or even accidental releases of advanced bioweapons, can disrupt industries and societies in dramatic ways. These are often seen as low-probability but can reshape human civilization in unexpected ways.

• HPSM: The steady rise of automation and the gradual displacement of human workers by machines and AI systems represent a slow-moving trend that could have widespread economic and social impacts over time, particularly for job markets and income inequality.

5. Geopolitical Stability

• LPHI: Large-scale wars, nuclear conflict, or terrorist attacks are low-probability events that, when they occur, can lead to mass casualties, destabilize regions, or even trigger global crises.

• HPSM: The gradual rise of political polarization, authoritarianism, and the erosion of democratic institutions represent slow-moving threats to social stability. While less dramatic in the short term, these trends can undermine the fabric of societies over time.

6. Resource Availability

• LPHI: Resource scarcity events, such as a sudden collapse of a major food supply due to unforeseen environmental or economic factors, can be devastating, although relatively rare.

• HPSM: The ongoing depletion of natural resources, including freshwater, fossil fuels, and arable land, is a slow-moving but highly predictable crisis. These trends affect food security, energy stability, and access to clean water over time.

7. Human Survival and Existential Risks

• LPHI: Large-scale existential risks, such as a near-Earth object impact, gamma-ray bursts, or a runaway artificial intelligence system, fall into the LPHI category. These are events that could lead to the extinction or severe disruption of human life but are highly unlikely to occur in any given generation.

• HPSM: Population growth, resource overuse, and the gradual degradation of Earth's ecosystems represent slow-moving existential risks. These trends are highly probable and could ultimately challenge human survival if left unchecked.

In all these areas, the challenge is finding the right balance between preparing for the extreme, rare events that can suddenly alter the course of human existence (LPHI) and managing the more predictable, slower-moving risks (HPSM) that accumulate over time but are no less dangerous in the long run. This involves smart investments, foresight, and a willingness to act both in crisis moments and for the long-term future.